📑The global grain market has shaken again, with wheat showing steady price growth. The reasons for this phenomenon are complex and multifaceted: geopolitical tensions, climate risks, export restrictions from certain countries, and speculative fluctuations on the stock exchanges.

📢At Agro Food Summit 2025, Alla Stoyanova, a deputy of the Odesa Regional Council and an expert on agricultural development, provided professional analytics on the dynamics of global and domestic wheat prices. In her speech, she noted that the price of Ukrainian grain is formed not only under the influence of global quotations, but also in the context of the war economy, changes in logistics and demand in foreign markets. Her speech became an important element of the forum, adding to the analytical data we present below. Read more about the event at this link https://agroperemoga.com.ua/agro-food-summit-2025.../

💥What's next? Should we expect stabilisation? Or is wheat really turning into the "golden grain" of our time? How exactly do these factors affect the price of wheat in Ukraine and the world are analysed in this article.
🔎 SENS Information and Analytical Centre presents analytics on current and future trends of the global and domestic Ukrainian grain market, taking into account forecasts of the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) and weekly analytical report from the leading industry source - APK-Inform.

📌 🔍 Global context: the balance of production, consumption and trade

In May 2025, the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) adjusted its forecast for global grain production in 2024 to 2.848 billion tonnes, down 1.1 million tonnes from April's estimates and slightly lower than in 2023. The main reason for the decline was lower corn yields. At the same time, rice production may reach a record 543.6 million tonnes (+1.5%), thanks to the expansion of the area under the crop.
Global consumption of grains in 2024/25 MY is expected to reach 2.807 billion tonnes, up 1.9 million tonnes from the previous estimates. Growth in demand for rice (especially in Africa) and wheat (in the EU and Argentina) supports this trend.
However, global grain stocks will decline to 868.2 million tonnes, and the stocks-to-consumption ratio will fall to 29.9% (against 30.8% a year earlier). A particularly marked decline is expected in feed grains due to a decrease in corn stocks in the US.
In the global context, grain trade will decline to 478.6 million tonnes (-6.8%): wheat trade will decline by 7.4%, and feed grains by 8.2%. Only the rice market will show growth (+1.2%).

🌾 Prices influenced by fundamental and speculative factors
The wheat market remains in the phase of high volatility. According to APK-Inform, wheat prices are fluctuating under the influence of speculative activity, geopolitics and weather conditions.
In the US, CBOT quotes rose to $192.9/t, but the expected increase in global ending stocks to 265.7 million tonnes and the forecast for a record harvest of 732.6 million tonnes in 2025/26 MY limit the potential for further growth.
In the EU, rising yields in the south offset a decline in France, but exports fell by more than 30%, putting pressure on prices. Euronext futures rose to 204.3 €/t, but this growth is limited by structural factors.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian market: stable exports amid price pressure
Between 9 and 15 May, Ukraine exported 280.5 thsd tonnes of wheat (+6%), but prices continued to decline:

• milling wheat (12.5% protein, FOB) - 240-245 USD/t (-2-4 USD),
• feed wheat FOB - 230-237 USD/t,
• CPT port (Greater Odesa) - 215 USD/t,
• Danube - 214 USD/t.
  Price pressure is generated by:
• low activity of importers, who expect a new record harvest in key countries;
• high competition from Latin America;
• logistical constraints caused by the war and changes in export routes.

📑"The price situation in Ukraine is a reflection of a combination of global trends and domestic challenges," Alla Stoyanova emphasises.

📈 Analytical conclusions

1. The global market is facing a paradox: on the one hand, record production forecasts, and on the other hand, declining stocks, especially of corn.
2. Speculative activity is supporting short-term price growth, but fundamentals (production growth, weak demand, high inventories) are putting pressure on prices.
3. Ukraine maintains stable exports, but prices are falling due to global conditions and local restrictions.
4. The wheat market is increasingly becoming a strategic resourceThe Bank's business is also subject to geopolitical and climate risks.

🔧 Tools

1. Diversification of export markets, focusing on Africa and Asia, where rice and wheat consumption is growing.
2. Strengthening logistics autonomy, in particular through the Danube ports, small-scale maritime logistics and rail routes.
3. Creating strategic wheat reserves to smooth out market fluctuations in a war economy.
4. Supporting farmers through off-season price stabilisation programmes.
5. Developing exchange tools to create a domestic grain futures market, which will reduce dependence on speculative global trends.

📊 Forecast of price dynamics (summer-autumn 2025)
✔️Продовольча wheat FOB - $235-245/t (steady decline)
✔️Фуражна wheat FOB - $220-230/t (stabilisation in July)
✔️Внутрішній market (CPT port) - $210-220/tonne (depending on logistics
✔️CBOT (futures) - $185-195/t (volatility)
✔️Euronext (September) - €195-205/t (local increase in July)

🧭 The wheat market in 2025 operates under high uncertainty, where every new factor - climate, war, tender, exchange activity - instantly affects prices. Ukrainian farmers need flexible strategies, a focus on integration into the Asian and African markets, and government support to address logistical challenges.

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