📢The impact of climate change on agriculture will primarily affect traditional breadbaskets, including Ukraine
It is a well-known and obvious fact that climate change has an impact on agricultural development. However, research on this topic has mainly focused on specific aspects of this impact, on individual crops or on specific regions.

📜In the first half of 2025, two major studies were published that attempt to provide a more holistic picture of this relationship. Both papers cover several basic crops and different geographical regions. Both papers focus exclusively on the calorific aspects of yields, without addressing the nutritional content of crops. The former shows how climate change in the last 50 years have affected crop yields (historical aspect), and the second paper tries to predict what these yields will look like in 2050 and 2100 based on different climate scenarios (predictive aspect). Another important nuance is that both studies take into account climate adaptation measures taken by farmers; in the first case, in fact, in the second case, they are necessarily taken into account in the models.

💻Let's look at these two studies, first by crop and then by region, in particular as they apply to Ukraine.
The "historical" study for 1974-2023, entitled "Half a century of climate change in major agricultural regions: trends, impacts and surprises", looked at wheat, corn, rice, soybeans and barley. The results: climate change, which is defined here as changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric water vapour pressure deficit, has led to a 12.5% reduction in barley yields, 10% in wheat, 5% in soybeans, 4.2% in corn and 1% in rice. In other words, if there had been no climate change, the yields of these crops would have been higher by the above percentage points. At the same time, scientists have made allowances for the increased CO2 content in the atmosphere, which promotes plant growth through the fertility process and therefore partially offset the losses for all crops except corn. Thus, for soybeans and rice, we even get an increase in yields of 4.7% and 5.5%, respectively, and the total for all five crops, taking into account both climate change and an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, yields a loss of only -1.2%. At the same time, it should be remembered that no one has calculated actual yields anywhere; the historical aspect of this study is that it takes into account real historical data on climate, not yields.
Next, a general conclusion by region: over the past 50 years, in all the analysed regions without exception, in addition to the steady trend of rising temperatures, intense atmospheric drying has also been observed, i.e. an increase in the water vapour pressure deficit even with slight changes in total precipitation. This is a very important trend to consider for the future.

📍The overestimation of negative climate trends for North America (USA) - in fact, this continent has so far escaped the worst climate scenarios - and the underestimation of unfavourable trends for other areas with relatively temperate climates came as a surprise. In particular, for the CEE region, including Ukraine, over the past half-century, the actual experience of higher temperatures, lower precipitation and water vapour pressure deficits has actually been much worse than predicted in the models of the time. This is also important to understand when considering projections for the future.
Specifically for Ukraine, there are data for three crops using two models: wheat - losses of 12-13%, corn - losses of 13-19%, barley - increase in yields by 8-10%.
One way or another, the global warming trend is unequivocal: even the coolest agricultural season today is actually warmer than the warmest agricultural season 50 years ago.
While the first study had empirical data in the form of historically recorded climate indicators, the second study, entitled "The Impact of Climate Change on Global agriculture taking into account adaptation measures" is based on theoretical models. Its undoubted merit is its broad representativeness. The analysis lasted for seven years and covered 12658 administrative units in 54 countries (two-thirds of global food production) for six basic crops: corn, soybeans, rice, winter and spring wheat, cassava and sorghum - in different climatic zones and socio-economic contexts. Two scenarios of global warming were considered - moderate and worst-case, i.e. with average and highest greenhouse gas emissions according to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models, which would mean a 3°C or 5°C increase in the average global temperature by 2100.

📑It is important that the study takes into account various adaptation practices to maintain or increase yields, including crop rotation, shifting the sowing period depending on expected temperatures and precipitation, active use of early maturing crops to avoid the period of the highest heat, modern irrigation systems, etc.
Projected crop yields for the end of the 21st century under the worst-case climate scenario: corn from +10% in high northern latitudes to -40% elsewhere; soybeans from +20% in the Amazon to -50% in the US; wheat from -15% to -40% depending on the region; sorghum from +28% in Europe to -40% in North America; cassava -40% in Africa; rice unchanged in Asia, -50% in other regions.
No data were collected specifically for Ukraine; data from 54 countries were extrapolated to the rest of the world. Judging by the available maps, for Ukraine, theoretical losses for corn and soybeans will be up to about 25%, for wheat and rice up to 50%, for sorghum (millet) an increase in yields of about 25%, and no data are available for canola.

🌾The study estimates that by the end of the century, there will be a loss of 121 calories per person per day (4.4% of the norm) for every 1 degree of warming.
50% regions with moderate average temperatures, which include Ukraine, will suffer the largest percentage yield losses. This is because in the currently hot regions, plants have already adapted to extreme conditions, and a slight increase in temperature will not harm them much; in the currently cool regions, a future warming of several degrees will help increase yields; and the regions that will suffer the most are those that are currently experiencing quite favourable conditions for flora, but due to a warming of several degrees, these conditions will become sharply unfavourable for them.

⛳️Втрати harvests will be 28% in the poorest regions, 18% in the regions with average income and 41% in the richest regions, as the latter are the least adapted to extreme climatic conditions.
Conclusions:

1. The absolute yields of a number of basic crops from expected future climate change are very different and therefore ambiguous, ranging from +30% to -50%. They are highly dependent on the climatic conditions of a particular region, primarily the availability of moisture. This is even more so when we are talking about a long period of time up to the end of the century.
   At the same time, future losses are expected to be significantly higher than the recorded losses over the past 50 years, meaning that linear climate change has a non-linear and predominantly negative effect on agricultural production.
2. Even translating vital nutritional needs into purely caloric terms, with a 3-5°C increase in global average temperature, would result in a loss of 420-600 calories per day, which, given the daily average of 2200 kilocalories per adult, is 19-27%; and this figure already looks quite significant. That is, even such very imperfect parameters as agricultural yields and caloric content of food (without taking into account the nutritional value for optimal health), which modern agriculture and medicine like to use, show rather deplorable results. This yield, as we know, is currently achieved exclusively through the use of mineral fertilisers and pesticides and the use of large volumes of fresh water. This means that even the most advanced agricultural techniques will no longer be able to guarantee stable yields for farmers.
3. The prognostic study unjustifiably claims that any further increase in temperature by 1°C will indirectly result in a loss of 120 kcal per person per day. It is clear that this conclusion is based on the laws of statistics, not biology. It is known that each individual plant has its own unique range of temperatures, humidity and other parameters important for its ontogeny, outside of which there will be a sharp drop in yields and even a question of its ability to grow and reproduce in new climatic conditions. This is especially true for seeds that simply stop forming when they cross these limits. Therefore, it is logical to assume that each subsequent 1°C increase in temperature may in fact have a progressively negative effect on yields up to a complete loss of all of them.
4. Given the fact that Ukraine is potentially in a high-risk area where crop losses due to climate change could be very significant, it is advisable to make such decisions.

🔆Agronomic solution: When planning further agricultural activities, it is a priority to rely on the principle of resilience, adaptability, survival and genetic richness of varieties and microorganisms in plants and soils, rather than yield (Resilience, not Yield). After all, even with the maximum use of all adaptation practices, the yields of modern varieties and hybrids continue to fall steadily. If there is no survival, there will be no yield. Therefore, seed selection should also be based on the needs of adaptation to local/regional conditions, and some crops that are not viable without large doses of inputs should be completely abandoned.

📑Nutritive solution: Limit the current predominant cultivation of so-called cash crops in Ukraine, such as grains and oilseeds. Ukrainians do not eat wheat, soy or corn every day, washing it down with sunflower and rapeseed oils. Instead, we should prioritise the development of high-quality organic vegetable growing, horticulture and livestock farming.

Economic solution: Stop falling for the mantra of international agribusiness corporations that Ukraine must "feed the world". This hollow slogan is used to justify their insatiable desire to continue poisoning Ukraine's soil and water to maximise profits. Instead, we need to pursue a policy that focuses on what kind of food we want to have for our citizens, not what kind of agriculture we want to have for foreign trade.

🔱Political decision: Do not sell Ukrainian agricultural products to countries that do not condemn Russia's aggression against Ukraine, especially when they are heavily dependent on our supplies