Today, the President of Ukraine signed Law No. 4536 "On Amendments to the Tax Code of Ukraine and Other Legislative Acts of Ukraine in connection with the adoption of the Law of Ukraine "On Integrated Industrial Pollution Prevention and Control" and in order to improve certain provisions of tax legislation". The document amends tax and customs legislation and provides for the introduction of export duties on soya and rapeseed. The law is awaiting official publication and will come into force on 1 October 2025.

📄 What is provided by law?

• Until 1 January 2030, an export duty of 10% will be applied to exports of soybean and rapeseed.
• Starting in 2030, the rate will be reduced by 1% annually to 5%.
• Own-grown products are exempt from customs duties.

📊Government logic: recycling instead of raw materials

The main goal of the changes is to stop the uncontrolled export of raw materials and create incentives for the development of domestic processing. The Cabinet of Ministers expects that Ukrainian factories will start producing more vegetable oils, meals and other value-added products, and the agricultural sector will receive new jobs and investments.

📣 Market reaction: support or alarm?

The introduction of duties has already sparked a heated debate among market participants.

• Traders and exporters are talking about risks: reduced profitability, loss of margins, and a likely decline in foreign buyers' interest in Ukrainian raw materials.
• Processing companies, on the other hand, see this as a new opportunity: cheaper raw materials, production growth, and the formation of a domestic market for processed products.

❗️Хто wins and who loses?

Farmers were the first to be hit. Most soybean and rapeseed producers were focused on selling raw materials to traders quickly without investing in their own processing. The new duties are effectively forcing them to either look for new sales routes, export independently, or operate at a lower profit. For farmers who are used to planning export contracts in advance, the change in rules at the height of the season comes as an unpleasant financial shock.

Processors benefit. Access to cheaper raw materials allows factories to increase production, increase profitability and expand exports of finished products. This is fully in line with the government's strategy, but it creates an uneven start for small and medium-sized farms that do not have the resources to build their own processing facilities.

🌾Will this be a "Ukrainian breakthrough"?

In theory, yes. If the government goes beyond duties and provides affordable loans, invests in logistics and support for processing companies, in a few years Ukraine will be able to export not just seeds, but also oil, meal and other high value-added products.

In practice, the risks are high. Without a real programme of support for farmers, duties may turn into a tax burden rather than a development tool, which will reduce the profitability of production and force small farmers to cut back on soybean and rapeseed crops.

🔴VALUATION
Law No. 4536 - is a step in the right direction at the strategic level, but its tactical implementation is painful. Ukraine needs to stop being just a "raw material appendage", but this should be done not by hitting farmers, but by systematically supporting producers and stimulating investment in processing. Otherwise, we risk a drop in exports and farmers' dissatisfaction - without guaranteed industrial development.

Today we are witnessing the beginning of a new period for the agricultural sector: from free exports of raw materials to a controlled market with a priority for domestic processing. Whether this will become a success story or a new challenge depends on whether the state is ready to lend a shoulder to those who are forced to change the rules of the game.