In a time of military challenges, global economic fluctuations and complex logistics, foreign trade in grain crops remains critical for Ukraine's agricultural sector 🇺🇦.

Grain is not only a source of foreign exchange earnings for the budget, but also the face of Ukraine on global agricultural markets.

Based on the current figures, let's try to understand the main market trends in the third week of May 2025.

📊 Grain exports: a sharp decline

Ukraine's grain exports decreased by 42.2% from 16 to 22 May, down to 486 thsd tonnes, compared to the previous week.

🔹 Wheat: -57% (135.6 thousand tonnes)
🔹 Corn: -37% (345.9 thousand tonnes)
Barley: -50% (4.5 thsd tonnes)

The reasons for the decline were low competitiveness of products, weak demand from importers, and a general decline in trader activity.

💵 Prices and market fluctuations: what's going on?

Wheat: stable with a downward trend

The milling wheat segment saw a moderate decline in demand. The average export price remained at 235 USD/t, while CPT port prices were in the range of 200-210 USD/t.
Supply from farmers remained weak, which partially restrained further price falls.

🌽💸Feed corn: weak demand and struggle for competitiveness

Procurement corn prices of the new crop fell to 192-201 USD/t CPT port, i.e. 1-2 USD/t lower than the previous week. Main factors of influence:
✔️ demand reduction
✔️ weak position in the foreign market
✔️ delayed activity on the part of farmers
However, at the end of the week there was a slight rise in prices due to the need for traders to cover contracts urgently.

Feed barley: strong demand amid uncertainty

The barley market remained the most interesting. Due to steady demand from China and low carry-over stocks, interest in feed barley remained strong.
Although prices remained mostly declarative at 217 USD/t CPT port, some traders offered as much as 10,000-10,100 UAH/t in urgent need.

🚚 Motor transport: new challenges and trends

Grain exports by road increased by 34% over the week, indicating the search for new logistics solutions:
▪️ Corn - +65% (1.8 thsd tonnes)
▪️ Wheat - -30% (0.4 thsd tonnes)

🔮 Forecast: what's next for the grain market?

📌 Wheat: no significant growth is expected as oversupply on the global market keeps prices down.
📌 Corn: further decline is possible due to weak external demand.
📌 Barley: there is a high probability of a price increase for the new harvest, given the shortage.

✅ Adaptation and cautious optimism

The Ukrainian grain market is in a constant state of balancing between domestic pressure, global trends and logistical barriers. It is important for farmers to remain flexible and closely monitor the market, as even minimal price fluctuations can significantly affect profitability 💼🌱.

📝 The information was prepared based on APK-Inform data.