❗️На In early May 2025, the Ukrainian grain market is showing a restrained but steady decline in prices for major crops. This is not a catastrophe - it is a signal. It is a signal that we should rethink our sales strategies, monitor the situation on foreign markets and prepare for new scenarios in the trade game.
📉 Corn: pressure from the outside and calm inside
Prices for old-crop corn in the ports of Odesa have decreased by USD 4-5 over the past week. It is currently trading in the range of 236-238 \$/t on DAP terms. The reasons for the price drop are expected:
✔️Зниження demand from traders who have already built up the necessary stocks.
✔️Невигідна the position of Ukrainian corn** on the global market, where the US and Brazilian supply remains more competitive.
Corn of the new harvest was not left behind, as its price also dropped to 200-202 \$/t DAP. Even in promising export destinations such as Germany and the Netherlands, buyers' indications show moderate interest:
✔️ DAP Germany (NW) ~200-202 €.
✔️ DAP Netherlands (south) ~198-200€
🌾 Wheat: not the stability we expected
Prices for milling wheat of the 3rd class also went down. In the ports of Greater Odesa, a decrease of 3-6 \$/t was recorded, and prices are now in the range of 226-232 \$/t CPT port. The Danube ports have seen a drop of 1-5 \$/t, with prices in the range of 227-231 \$/t.
The reasons are the same: low buyer activity, declining global prices and high competition in international markets.

✅ Recommendations for farmers

• Analyse logistics
  With prices falling, every dollar counts. Learn the difference between logistics destinations: Odesa vs Danube ports. Sometimes it is more profitable to reorient to the Danube, especially if you are closer to the southwestern regions.
• Take a closer look at forward contracts
  Despite the decline in prices, forward contracts for the autumn can protect against further fluctuations. If you see an offer that is even a few dollars higher than the current spot price, it is worth considering.
• Pay attention to recycling
  If you have access to dryers or mills, you should consider deeper processing of corn or wheat, at least partially. This will help to keep the profitability at the same level.
• Diversify your crops
  Falling prices are another argument in favour of expanding crop rotation. Rapeseed, sorghum, chickpeas or flax could become alternatives in 2026. Niche crops aimed at exports or domestic processing facilities are also worth considering.
• Get ready for a longer game
  The one with the shelf life and storage capacity will have an advantage. If you can, don't rush to sell at a lower price. The market will still be fluctuating, and the situation may change in the autumn.

💬 NGO "Agrarians of Odesa Region" notes that
"The market is a living thing. It breathes, reacts to changing conditions, geopolitics and the behaviour of traders. Today it exhaled - prices went down. But this is not the end of the game, but just the next stage. Ukrainian farmer - is no stranger to the struggle for profitability.
That's why we don't panic. We analyse, calculate, and choose smart strategies. Sober calculation and the ability to adapt are the key to agricultural sustainability."